Grain prices rise after Russia targets Ukraine exports

Russia has been attacking Ukraine’s port cities all week after pulling out of a yearlong agreement that allowed cargo ships to safely haul grain from Ukraine through the Black Sea.

Ukraine is a major global provider of wheat, corn, and oilseeds—especially to countries in Africa and the Middle East—so grain prices have risen considerably over concerns of possible shortages.

• Russia exited the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative on Monday, but it wasn’t until Wednesday—when Russia said it might treat any Ukraine-bound cargo ship as hostile—that wheat prices spiked by 8.5%. That was the largest daily increase since Russia invaded in February 2022.
• Since pulling out of the deal, Russia has targeted two of Ukraine’s seaports and reportedly laid mines along the coast. Nightly missile and drone attacks have killed and wounded civilians, destroyed agricultural infrastructure, and burned enough grain to feed more than 270,000 people for a year, according to the World Food Program.

What now? Ukraine can still ship grain through the EU via road and rail, which is why traders say they don’t think there will be a global grain shortage. But these routes are more expensive, and the nations that rely on Ukrainian grain might turn instead to Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter.